The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.
Malik Nabers will be targeted at least 12 times vs. Dallas.
John Schmeelk: Fiction – Malik Nabers will lead the Giants in targets on Thursday night. He will be Daniel Jones' first thought when he drops back to pass. So why won't he have 12 targets? Because the Giants will not have to throw the ball that much on Thursday night. The Dallas Cowboys have not been able to stop the run for the last two weeks. The Cowboys allowed 274 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 2. The previous week the Saints ran for 190 yards on the Cowboys. Brian Daboll customizes his gameplan to the opponent every week, and I expect a run-heavy plan, including designed runs for Jones since Lamar Jackson had so much success against Dallas. The Giants shouldn't have to throw the ball this week at a high volume. The Cowboys' rush defense did look better in the fourth quarter against Baltimore and might that carry over? Sure. Might the Cowboys score some points early and put the Giants in a deficit, forcing them to throw more than I expect? If that happens, I'll be wrong. But I think this game looks a little different than what the last seven years of Giants-Cowboys games have looked like.
Dan Salomone: Fact – I learned my lesson last week when I went with "fiction" on a similar topic. He averages 12.3 targets per game, the most in the NFL through three weeks.
Matt Citak: Fact – Nabers finds himself among the league leaders in numerous receiving statistics, an impressive feat for someone just three games into his NFL career. Opposing defenses will begin to game plan for the rookie as they attempt to limit his production in the passing game. The Cowboys will try to do this on Thursday, but frankly, I don't think it will matter. Nabers is going to likely lead the team in targets just about every game.
The team with the most sacks will win on Thursday night.
John Schmeelk: Fact – This might be a bit simplistic, but this stat might very well indicate the flow of the game. If the Cowboys force the Giants into a predominantly pass-heavy attack, they will get sacks with edge rushers Micah Parson and DeMarcus Lawrence. If the Giants can get an early lead, they can unleash their pass rushers against a Cowboys offensive line that is starting a pair of rookies. Both of these teams want to be able to unleash their pass rushes defensively and have had a pair of games where they have struggled against the run this year. Whichever team gets more sacks will likely indicate they stuck to their formula and got to play with a lead for much of the game.
Dan Salomone: Fact – The Giants found themselves down 26-0 and 28-0 in the first half of their two losses to the Cowboys last season. They need to avoid falling in an early hole, and the best way to do that is to win in the trenches.
Matt Citak: Fiction – In the Week 2 loss to the Commanders, the Giants registered five sacks of Jayden Daniels, while Daniel Jones was sacked just twice. Despite winning the sack battle, the Giants lost the game. Sacks obviously play a big role in a defense's success, but they are not the be-all and end-all. Instead, I believe each team's success in the red zone will be the determining factor Thursday night. The Giants enter this week with the No. 10 red zone offense and No. 7 red zone defense. On the other side, Dallas' red zone offense ranks No. 15 while their defense comes in all the way at No. 32. If these trends continue Thursday, the Giants will have a good chance at emerging with the victory.
The Cowboys' defense is a bigger challenge than their offense for the Giants this week.
John Schmeelk: Fiction – The last two weeks the Dallas Cowboys' defense has not been able to stop anyone. They've allowed 890 yards, including 464 on the ground, and 72 points. Dallas has only three takeaways this season, mostly because opposing offenses have not been put in precarious situations due to their inability to stop the run. The Dallas offense, however, has still been effective. The Cowboys have struggled running the ball, but they are still a top 10 offense in yards per game and lead the league in passing yards. They have scored the sixth-most points in the league.
Dan Salomone: Fiction – Each season is its own story, but the last time these two teams met, the Cowboys piled up 640 total yards, the second-most ever allowed by the Giants.
Matt Citak: Fact – Despite what the numbers through three games might say, the Cowboys' defense still presents a bigger challenge for the Giants than their offense. Dallas currently ranks 30th in points and 29th in yards allowed this season, as the Saints scored 44 points on them in Week 2 while the Ravens had 28 this past Sunday. Those two teams also averaged 444 yards of total offense on Dallas' defense. With all of that said, the Cowboys' defense has consistently caused the Giants trouble in recent years. Over the last six games between the two teams, all of which Dallas has won, the Giants have been unable to top 20 points. The Cowboys currently have the league's lowest-ranked run game, and while Dak Prescott has looked solid, it appears as if he and CeeDee Lamb are still getting on the same page. Nonetheless, for as long as Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are in Dallas, that defense will pose a problem.
Thursday Night Football will be a high-scoring game.
John Schmeelk: Fact – Both these teams have seen their defenses struggle in two games this season. Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones have both been effective and have elite weapons to throw the ball to in Malik Nabers and CeeDee Lamb. Both teams also have injuries at cornerback (Daron Bland, Adoree' Jackson, Dru Phillips). I think this game may look like the old Tony Romo-Eli Manning high-scoring affairs from yesteryear.
Dan Salomone: Fact – We'll see if weather has an impact, but this game could get loose offensively. The Giants have clearly found something with Malik Nabers, who has unlocked this offense and makes things easier for everyone. The offensive line playing 100 percent of the snaps together this season is also a big reason.
Matt Citak: Fiction – As mentioned in my last answer, the Giants haven't scored more than 20 points against the Cowboys in their last six meetings. While I do believe the Giants can snap that streak on Thursday, I don't know if it will be by much. Despite finishing with 25 points against the Ravens, the Cowboys' offense looks out of sorts as all three of Dallas' touchdowns came in the fourth quarter when they were already down 28-6. Given all this and the fact that it's a short week, I could see this game being relatively low-scoring.
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