Scouting Report

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Scouting Report: Key matchups, stats to know

Jan 19, 2023 at 12:52 AM

John Schmeelk

Giants.com

The Giants face the Eagles for the third time on Saturday night. The Giants were beaten by the Eagles, 48-22, on Dec. 11 at MetLife Stadium, and then rested the majority of their starters in a 22-16 loss in Philadelphia on Jan. 8.

In the first matchup, the Giants were in the midst of a three-week winless streak and the Eagles were at the peak of their powers. The Giants were also without Xavier McKinney, Adoree' Jackson and Leonard Williams. Unlike the Vikings rematch, there may not be much to take out of these first two matchups, spare looking at the first one and seeing what the Giants must avoid if they want to win – in short, it probably will take their best game of the season.

When the Eagles have the ball…

Numbers to know

Yards/Game: 389.1 (3rd)
Rush YPG: 147.6 (5th)
Pass YPG: 241.5 (9th)
3rd Down: 45.9% (4th)
Red Zone TD: 67.8% (3rd)
Plays of 20+: 80 (2nd)
PPG: 28.1 (3rd)
Turnovers: 19 (T5th)
Sacks allowed: 44 (T20th)

* Those numbers are impressive, but are the Eagles the same team they were for most of the regular season? After starting at 13-1, the Eagles are 1-2 since Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder. If you include the game when he got hurt (Week 15 vs the Bears), they are 2-2 and averaging 22.75 points per game.

In their past three games, the Eagles are only averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. Hurts' ability to keep the ball on designed runs and scramble on pass plays is central to the Eagles' offense.

"It for sure opens up a lot of things," Giants safety Julian Love said. "I think that when you look across the league, guys who can run the ball at a high level, he has to be up there with the top quarterbacks right now. He's efficient, and his ability to run the ball, to scramble, opens up a lot of things for their offense – the pass game. For the running back, it opens up holes for him. That's how they get going, and they're doing it at a very high rate right now. So, it's a problem. That's no secret to anybody; it's a problem because of who's at quarterback for them. He's a good player."

But will Hurts' injured shoulder allow him to be as effective as a runner? Hurts carried it only nine times for 13 yards in the final game of the regular season and was quick to slide rather than take on contact like he was always willing to do when healthy. Will it impact his ability to throw it downfield as a passer? The answer will be crucial in determining how the game is going to play out.

* According to Next-Gen stats, Hurts has a 58% completion rate with a 93.1 passer rating vs. the blitz this season, and a 70.5% completion rate with a 105.6 passer rating against no blitz in 2022.

* Eagles starting right tackle Lane Johnson hurt his adductor muscle on Christmas Eve against the Cowboys, but declined surgery and is expected to play this week. He was limited in practice on Tuesday. Johnson was named first team All-Pro this year and was elected to the Pro Bowl.

* Starting tight end Dallas Goedert missed the Eagles' first game against the Giants with an injury. He is a very effective receiver and finished the season with 55 catches for 702 yards in 12 games. In the three games since returning, he has 12 catches for 158 yards.

Key matchups:

Dexter Lawrence vs. Jason Kelce: Lawrence is the Giants' best defensive player. He led the team with 38 quarterback hits, which was more than double than anyone else on the team. He also led the team with 7.5 sacks. He will be taking on future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce. According to Next Gen Stats, Lawrence led all defensive tackles with 62 pressures this season, and he and Leonard Williams have more pressures than any other defensive tackle duo in the NFL. Lawrence's eight pressures last week set a Next Gen Stats playoff record for the most by a defensive tackle.

On Dec. 11, Lawrence was held to no sacks and just one quarterback hit, although Pro Football Focus tracked him with five pressures. In seven career games against Jason Kelce, Lawrence has two sacks, and six quarterback hits. Lawrence has been a dominant force in the middle for the Giants all season, and he will have to be this week.

Miles Sanders vs. Jaylon Smith and Jarrad Davis: Sanders had his best game of the season on Dec. 11 against the Giants, running 17 times for 144 yards with a season-high five runs of 10+ yards. Smith and Davis must be strong in their gap assignments, especially when they have to also account for Jalen Hurts as a runner. Sanders had fewer than 70 yards and no rushing touchdowns over his final four regular season games.

AJ Brown and Devonta Smith vs. Adoree' Jackson and Fabian Moureau: According to Pro Football Focus, the Dec. 11 game saw the Giants blitzed at 52.6% and played a lot of Cover-1 (30.9%) and Cover-0 (13.2%) snaps, which maximizes pressure on the cornerbacks to keep the game in front of them. Brown and Smith are Nos. 1-2 I the league in receiving yardage from Weeks 13-18. In the rematch, the Giants played zone at a much higher rate (68.4%), according to Next Gen Stats. Hurts led the NFL with a 104.1 passer rating vs. zone coverage in the regular season. The Giants have gone five straight games using man coverage on fewer than 35% of coverage snaps after having no such games from Weeks 1-14.

Keys for the Giants' defense

* Prevent explosive touchdowns – the Eagles had three touchdowns of 30+ yards the first time. The Giants have a good red zone defense but that's negated by allowing explosive touchdowns.

* Stop the early run to force the Eagles into 3rd-and-long so Wink Martindale can unleash his unique blitz packages to affect Jalen Hurts.

* Be prepared to adjust the game plan quickly based on the health of Jalen Hurts' shoulder and how it will impact his running and throwing.

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