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Fact or Fiction: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr. stat predictions

FACT-OR-FICTION

The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

Malik Nabers will have double-digit catches for the second week in a row and fourth time this season.

John Schmeelk: Fiction - The Falcons are primarily a zone defense team, but in the last four weeks, their frequency of playing Cover-1 has doubled as they try to generate more pass pressure up front with blitzes and stunts. AJ Terrell will travel with the opponent's top wide receiver, so I would expect him to be on Malik Nabers frequently on Sunday. If he is playing Nabers in tight man coverage, I'm not sure we will see a high number of catches, but we could see some big plays down the field. Nabers falls short of double-digit catches but he does get over 100 yards for the first time since Week 4 with at least one touchdown.

Dan Salomone: Fact – He needs just two to break the franchise rookie record and could do that on the first two throws of the game. Nabers leads the NFL with 11.7 targets per game, which is one more than the next closest player (CeeDee Lamb).

Matt Citak: Fiction – In Drew Lock's two starts, Nabers averaged 6.5 receptions on 11.5 targets per game. As good as the rookie wideout has been this season, he's only hit the double-digit catch mark three times, and last Sunday was the first time he reached this mark since Week 4. Nabers is undoubtedly going to be the focal point of the offense, but catching 10+ passes for the second consecutive week might be too tall of a task, even against a Falcons defense that is tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to wide receivers this season.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. will lead the Giants in rushing attempts and rushing yards on Sunday.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The ankle injury makes this a bit of a question, but if he is healthy, Tracy remains the top running back in the Giants' backfield. He is constantly getting the most out of the yards the offensive line gives him and then falling forward, making someone miss, or pressing the right hole to get a bit more than is blocked. Tracy is still one of the team's most dynamic playmakers and I expect him to be heavily involved on Sunday.

Dan Salomone: Fact – While ankle injury is worth monitoring (Tracy is listed as questionable for Sunday), the rookie has been a positive in a down season. Tracy's 695 yards currently rank sixth among rookies in Giants history, and he could climb as high as second by the end of the season.

Matt Citak: Fact – Over the last eight games, there has been only one occasion in which Tracy did not lead the team in both rushing attempts and yards. This occurred on Thanksgiving when Drew Lock led the team with 57 rushing yards on just four carries. While Lock is back under center this week, his recent heel injury that forced him to miss last week's game will likely limit his rushing ability a bit. Tracy has taken control over this backfield, with the promising rookie sitting just 85 yards shy of reaching 1,000 total yards from scrimmage on the year. While it may not all come on the ground, I expect Tracy to hit that 1,000-yard mark on Sunday.

View photos from the all-time series between the New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons.

RB Bijan Robinson is the Falcons' most dangerous player.

John Schmeelk: Fact – Robinson's combination of size, speed, elusiveness, and power is what sets him apart as a running back. The Falcons run more outside zone than any team in the NFL (61 percent), with the second team 10 percent behind them. Robinson is excellent at getting around the edge or finding the right hole and quickly getting up field. He can run over tacklers or make them miss with the speed to take any run the distance. He is a top-five running back in the NFL and the centerpiece of everything the Falcons do. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are excellent playmakers as well, but Robinson is the man for the Falcons' offense.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Look no further than the eighth overall pick who will be making his first career start on Sunday. Michael Penix Jr. had the advantage of easing into his NFL career and taking his time to learn behind a four-time Pro Bowler. The last first-round pick to start his first career game in Week 14 or later of his rookie season was Patrick Mahomes in Week 17 of 2017.

Matt Citak: Fact – This one isn't close. Robinson enters this matchup with 1,102 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground with an average of 4.6 yards per carry. The second-year back has also caught 54 passes for an additional 411 yards and one touchdown, giving him 1,513 total yards from scrimmage. This ranks third in the NFL behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, while Robinson's 92 missed tackles forced leads all running backs. For the Giants to have a chance at winning this game on Sunday, they will have to at least somewhat contain Robinson both on the ground and through the air.

The Giants will have at least three sacks of rookie Michael Penix Jr. in his first start.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – I expect the Falcons to run the ball and to try to create big plays for Michael Penix via play action, which could involve things like max protection to give him time to find his playmakers down the field. Drake London is similar in build to Rome Odunze, whom Penix had a lot of experience getting the ball to at Washington. The Falcons' offensive line is one of the better units in the league, and while Pennix is not the most agile player in the pocket to avoid sacks, he is a good athlete and can get the ball out quickly in the face of pressure. I think the Giants only get two.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – The loss of Dexter Lawrence can't be overstated in terms of sack production, and the Falcons will do their best to put their rookie quarterback in advantageous situations. Plus, Penix made 45 starts across six seasons of college football and played for a national championship less than a year ago.

Matt Citak: Fact – The Falcons are averaging just over two sacks allowed per game. While Penix is definitely able to move around the pocket better than Kirk Cousins was this year, I think the Giants will get three sacks of the rookie. Penix is making his first career start, which could lead to a little bit of indecisiveness in the pocket. While he's more mobile than Cousins, Penix isn't exactly a big rushing threat, as his success comes from throwing in the pocket. It'll be close, but the Giants will sack the rookie three times in his first start.

View photos of the Giants on the practice field at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center.

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